"It's far better to buy a wonderful company at a fair price than a fair company at a wonderful price."
— Warren Buffett
Click any pillar label to read Buffett's full reasoning. Drag sliders to stress-test the analysis.
Moatwhy
5/10
Greenlane Renewables operates in Clean energy with limited structural differentiation. Competition is possible without significant barriers. The business competes on service, relationships, or price rather than structural advantage. Buffett would require a meaningful discount to intrinsic value to compensate for the absence of a durable moat.
Managementwhy
5/10
Management quality at Greenlane Renewables is adequate but uninspiring. Insider ownership may be limited, the capital allocation track record is mixed, or leadership is unproven in Clean energy. Buffett is acutely sensitive to management quality in small companies where the CEO is the company. The discount to IV must compensate for this uncertainty.
Financialswhy
4/10
Greenlane Renewables's financials show meaningful weaknesses. This may include significant debt, inconsistent cash flow, or a history of equity raises. The Clean energy sector often requires capital intensity that limits true owner earnings. Buffett would discount the apparent earnings significantly and examine the cash flow statement rigorously.
Predictabilitywhy
4/10
Greenlane Renewables's earnings visibility is limited. The Clean energy sector produces lumpy, project-driven, or cyclically sensitive revenue that makes multi-year forecasting difficult. Buffett deliberately avoids businesses where he cannot see the future clearly. Stress-test aggressively and do not anchor to a single earnings estimate.
Margin of safetywhy
6/10
Greenlane Renewables trades at a reasonable discount to intrinsic value — not a screaming bargain, but attractive for a quality business. The margin of safety is sufficient for a patient 3-5 year investor. Buffett: 'Price is what you pay. Value is what you get.' At these levels, the investor pays a fair price for a good business rather than a dear price for an average one.
Radar chart — adjust sliders above to update
Composite: 5.0/10 • Verdict: Watch
Owner earnings bridge
Buffett's real number: Net income + D&A − Maintenance capex ± Working capital. Figures are indicative estimates from pillar scores — verify against company filings.
Estimated net income+$1.88M est.
Add: depreciation & amortisation+$0.26M
Less: maintenance capex-$0.32M
Less: minority interest adj.-$0.15M
Owner earnings~$1.60M
Owner earnings per share (est. 47.4M shares)$0.034/share
Price / OE at buy price C$0.6010x
Interactive DCF — adjust assumptions
Owner earnings ($M)$1.6M
Annual growth rate8%
Discount rate9%
Stock price (CAD $)$0.60
Intrinsic value per share
—
Calculating...
Bear case
—
Stress scenario
OE halved, 0% growth, 6x earnings
Base case
—
Most likely path
Current OE, 8% growth, 10x earnings
Bull case
—
Upside scenario
OE +50%, 15% growth, 14x earnings
Financial trend chart
Revenue (est.)Earnings (est.)
Investment thesis
Biogas upgrading systems; utility-scale RNG projects; government mandate tailwind.
Primary risk
Project timing lumpiness; large contract dependency
Buffett's lens on each pillar
Moat (5/10)
Greenlane Renewables operates in Clean energy with limited structural differentiation. Competition is possible without significant barriers. The business competes on service, relationships, or price rather than structural advantage. Buffett would require a meaningful discount to intrinsic value to c...
Management (5/10)
Management quality at Greenlane Renewables is adequate but uninspiring. Insider ownership may be limited, the capital allocation track record is mixed, or leadership is unproven in Clean energy. Buffett is acutely sensitive to management quality in small companies where the CEO is the company. The d...
Financials (4/10)
Greenlane Renewables's financials show meaningful weaknesses. This may include significant debt, inconsistent cash flow, or a history of equity raises. The Clean energy sector often requires capital intensity that limits true owner earnings. Buffett would discount the apparent earnings significa...
Predictability (4/10)
Greenlane Renewables's earnings visibility is limited. The Clean energy sector produces lumpy, project-driven, or cyclically sensitive revenue that makes multi-year forecasting difficult. Buffett deliberately avoids businesses where he cannot see the future clearly. Stress-test aggressively and ...
Margin of safety (6/10)
Greenlane Renewables trades at a reasonable discount to intrinsic value — not a screaming bargain, but attractive for a quality business. The margin of safety is sufficient for a patient 3-5 year investor. Buffett: 'Price is what you pay. Value is what you get.' At these levels, the investor...
Final verdict: Watch
Target buy price: C$0.60 — 25% margin of safety on base-case intrinsic value.
Overall score: 5/10.
No current dividend.
Overall score: 5/10.
No current dividend.
Verdict
Buffett / Munger
Watch
5/10
Composite score
Target buy price
C$0.60
25% MoS on base-case intrinsic value
Checklist
DividendNo
Moat5/10
Mgmt5/10
Financials4/10
Predictability4/10
Margin of safety6/10
Pillar bars
Moat5
Mgmt5
Fin4
Pred4
MoS6